On March 23rd, Boris Johnson told the country that “We must satay at home, and “lockdown” began. This should have reduced the transmission of the disease.
Any last-minute transmissions before lockdown should have become symptomatic around the end of the month (symptoms take up to a week to develop)but the daily infection rate continued to rise to between four and six thousand a day through out April as people flouted and ignore lockdown rules for various reasons: the weather, bank holiday, their kids are driving the crazy, the want to do DIY; and we are barely two weeks past the bank holiday, I fear that we still have more fallout from Easter to hit us yet.
Italy, the country that we are benchmarking our response against, started their lockdown on March the ninth. A much stricter lockdown than that which we didn’t observe in the UK, country hit it’s peak on the twenty-first, withing two weeks (inside incubation period or any last-minute infections) and has been on a downward trajectory since, evidencing that it is past its peak, we have not seen such evidence with our daily new cases rate, the throttling at six thousand may suggest a limitation in the pipeline that has prevented the testing numbers going any higher, but without adequate testing having been completed it is not possible to show the extent of the virus and where it’s going next.
in short – MORE STILL NEEDS TO BE DONE
(graphs from Google and Wikipedia)
we know that not all #COVID tests are even being completed, the numbers are just an empty target
#COVID__19 testing kit arrived without a return label. When I called the helpline she said a lot had been sent out without them in and to just put it in the bin. I wonder if this will be counted as part of @MattHancock s 122k tests that were taken on Thursday. #TestingForCovid19 pic.twitter.com/xjAXVaAPIQ
— Tom Howell (@HowlerTom) May 2, 2020